By Sabrina Matteucci
NATO Tactical Ocean Modelling System concept applicability. E.F. Coelho, M. Rixen, R. Signell. SR-411. October 2005.
Although the available ocean forecast schemes include a broad range of scales, they usually cannot account accurately for higher frequency ocean phenomena (sub-mesoscale to small scale) due to the uncertainty on the forcing fields and its initial phase. To overcome this uncertainty at present, extensive oceanographic data collection is required, which is very expensive and likely it will not be feasible to obtain on a sustained and substantial basis. To overcome these limitations at tactical level the NTOMS methodology is here proposed. It starts by running a model ensemble based on local available observations, builds robust statistics and introduces feature and high resolution modelling as a way to reduce uncertainty and increase systems performance. An implementation example during the trial MREA03 showed for surface drift related products that efficiency can increase by 20% and reliability can increase from 70 to 85%. Embedded feature modelling and the Mini-HOPS concepts are also outlined to locally improve the representation of the sub-mesoscale dynamics. It was concluded NTOMS approach to produce short term, locally more accurate oceanographic field estimation, accounting for the tactical modelling requirements.