default Cost-benefit analysis for piracy counter-measures effectiveness


Cost-benefit analysis for piracy counter-measures effectiveness.  De Rosa, Francesca; Funk, Ronald; Turnbull, Adrienne. CMRE-FR-2015-007. June 2015.

Piracy and armed robbery have re-emerged in the last few decades as a global security threat, which constitutes a risk for both seafarers and passengers? safety, as well as for Sea Lines of Communications. Piracy has not only economic impacts, but also political, ethical, social, legal and environmental implications. A comprehensive Cost-Benefit (C-B) analysis for piracy risk needs to consider all of these factors. The focus of this work is on non-military anti-piracy measures. Currently, there is a broad range of protection options available to commercial shipping, but little understanding of the cost-effectiveness of those Counter-Measures. Therefore, a Cost-Benefit analysis method has been set up in order to assist shipping companies in taking informed decision. To lay the foundation of this analysis a Counter-Measure Catalogue was created. Past piracy events have been analyzed to identify reference scenarios to test the final C-B method and to quantify the Counter-Measures Operational Effectiveness. Due to the limited data available a full analysis approach has not been possible, therefore a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis was adopted to estimate the Counter-Measure Technical Utility. The main driver to operational costs for rerouting is fuel consumption, so an important part of the model has been the development of a Fuel Consumption calculator, which enabled the C-B analysis for the different route options identified in each reference scenario. The C-B analysis is based on the data that was accumulated in a database, which can be expanded to accommodate additional information, thus creating an integrated tool that can automatically calculate the quantitative C-B impact of changes as new data are made available. It is important to highlight that the results of the C-B analysis are meant to be an aid for end users to take informed decisions, but they will always have to apply their professional judgment to select the Counter-Measures that are felt to be the most appropriate for circumstances at hand.